Q. In February of this year, you referenced an article by The Laboratoire Europeen d’Anticipation Politique / Europe 2020 (LEAP), regarding the coming of a world wide crisis. We were frowned upon by many of our friends… as this being something of hype. Are you able to determine is this actually ever occurred and if there are any recent updates regarding it? Thank you so much!
A. In my report, I quoted LEAP as saying there was an 80% probability of this beginning by the week of March 20, and that Iran and the US could do things to prevent it. Here’s the update. The Iranian Oil Bourse (IOB) was scheduled to open on March 20. It would challenge the dollar monopoly on oil sales, and over a period of time cause the dollar to decline sharply in world markets triggering a financial crisis in the US.
Even if the IOB had opened on time (it didn’t) this crisis would take time to mature, and I also indicated that the Federal Reserve Bank was already taking steps to hide the effects of such a move, making its impact more difficult to see, at least initially.
In the interim two things have happened to delay, but not eliminate, the potential for this crisis. One is that the Iranians haven’t been able to get their oil exchange up and running yet, and the other is that the US and Iran have been involved in secret talks which were characterized by the president of Iran as a failure just this week.
I have also indicated that this crisis when it comes could take on the form of a military confrontation, rather than an economic one, and at this moment the military option seems more likely.
But it’s important for all of us to realize that this crisis is not going to go away. It may have been delayed for a while but these two countries are on a collision course. Unless the US completely abandons its objections to Iran becoming a full blown nuclear power, it will eventually erupt and when it does the consequences will be severe.